Where to cut, where to double down: Marketing decisions in an age of consumer adaptation

If you’re looking at 2026 and wondering “Where can I cut without hurting growth? Where should I actually double down?” you are not alone. Most marketing and business leaders are feeling the same tension: budgets are under pressure, consumers are more cautious, and yet the business still expects results. 

Over the last six months of 2025, our colleagues at Leo agency deployed an in-depth study, the Recession Tracker, monitoring consumer behavior in the new economic context, across six key categories: two FMCG staple categories, two treat/occasion categories, one durable goods category, and one financial services category. 

Reviewing the insights across all of them, one pattern consistently emerged: Consumers aren’t disappearing, they’re optimizing: where they buy, what they buy, when they buy, and which brands deserve loyalty under pressure.
So let’s talk about what’s changing, what’s consistent across categories, and what leaders can do next.

The biggest shift: “adaptation” is beating “abandonment”

Across categories, consumers are far more likely to adjust their behavior than to exit entirely. In FMCG, they keep brands but optimize how they buy: through promotions, cheaper channels, different pack sizes, or fewer occasions. In out-of-home and treat categories, consumption is reduced or redirected rather than cut altogether, while in durable goods, purchases are delayed, more need-based, and heavily deal-driven.

What this means: If consumers are adapting rather than abandoning, growth won’t come from shouting louder. It will come from removing friction and aligning with the new purchase mechanics people are already using.

“Value” isn’t one thing anymore – it depends on the category

Value has fragmented:

• in everyday categories – it means maintaining brand preference through smarter shopping (discounters, promotions, and better unit prices);
• in durable goods, value means necessity plus financial ease, with strong reliance on deal-hunting, downgrading, and trade-ins;
• in financial services, value is explicit and transactional: lower fees and tangible monetary benefits;
• in treat categories, value combines price with novelty, as newness increasingly compensates for reduced frequency.

What this means: Treating value as a pure pricing issue limits growth. Depending on the category, value may sit in channels, promos and formats – or in financing, deal design, or experience and innovation that still feels “worth it.”

Occasions are shifting, and that quietly moves your ROI

Consumption is moving across contexts: some FMCG categories are seeing a shift from out-of-home to at-home occasions, while certain treat categories retain demand through “affordable indulgence,” albeit with higher deal sensitivity.

Translation: If your media and activation plans are still optimized for last year’s occasions, return on investment (ROI) can erode, even if spend and creative remain unchanged.

Loyalty isn’t dead – but it now comes with conditions

Loyalty persists, but under pressure. In everyday categories, consumers try to stay loyal while increasingly buying on deal and in cheaper channels. In financial services, loyalty erodes faster as people actively seek better offers. In treat categories, loyalty splits: some stick, others trade down or switch based on promotions.

What this means: You’re no longer managing “loyal vs. not loyal.” You’re managing loyalty under pressure – and pressured loyalty is far more elastic than last years’ playbooks assume.

So… what do you do with this as a decision maker?

The uncomfortable truth is that the old tactics – broad cuts, heavier performance pressure, more promotions – can still “work”, but it often masks long-term damage. Without a clear view of what is truly incremental versus what simply reshuffles demand, brands risk optimizing activity, not growth. 

This is exactly why the current context is tailor-made for Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM). Three reasons why MMM matters more in a “recalibration economy”.

#1. Granular channel-level ROI and diminishing returns

In a deal-driven, channel-switching world, average ROI is no longer enough. Leaders need to know where spend is still generating incremental lift and where it has already hit saturation. Cutting efficient channels destroys growth; overfunding saturated ones quietly wastes budget.

#2. One integrated view of media, pricing, promotions, and distribution

When purchase mechanics drive behavior, separating media effects from pricing or promo impact leads to false conclusions. An integrated MMM view allows leaders to distinguish real growth from pulled-forward demand, understand the role of distribution shifts, and quantify the true impact of moving into cheaper channels.

#3. Scenario planning that reflects economic pressure

What works in a period of stable confidence behaves very differently under recession caution. With macro anxiety and spending priorities shifting month to month, scenario planning becomes a leadership advantage – allowing teams to stress-test plans against confidence drops, rising promo intensity, or continued growth of discount channels, and to realign media and distribution accordingly. 

In a market where consumers adapt instead of quit, growth doesn’t disappear – it gets harder to see. Marketing Mix Modeling isn’t about proving marketing works.
It’s about proving what actually adds growth when everything else is moving at the same time. Right now, that clarity is a competitive advantage.

Photos @Unsplash